Mr. Poon Panichpiboon, a market strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, reported that the Thai Baht opened this morning at 34.17 Baht per dollar, showing a significant appreciation from the previous closing level of 34.58 Baht per dollar.

Since last night, the Baht (USDTHB) has gradually strengthened, fluctuating within the range of 33.94-34.69 Baht per dollar, supported by rising gold prices (XAUUSD), which have approached the $3,100 per ounce zone again. Additionally, the Baht received support from easing concerns over the U.S. trade policy, as President Donald Trump recently announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on various countries, except for China, where the U.S. has raised the import tariff to 125% in response to China's latest trade measures. However, the appreciation of the Baht has been somewhat tempered as the financial market atmosphere has returned to a risk-on state, putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the dollar has continued to strengthen due to renewed demand for U.S. risk assets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has also gradually weakened in line with the risk-on sentiment.

In the U.S. stock market, the atmosphere has shifted back to a risk-on state after President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on various countries (though Chinese goods will face a new higher import tariff of 125%). This news has led to a strong rebound in major tech stocks, such as Tesla (+22.7%) and Nvidia (+18.7%), resulting in the S&P 500 index rising by +9.52%.

In the European stock market, the STOXX600 index fell by over -3.50% amid concerns over the impact of the latest U.S. trade policies. However, after President Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, market players began to embrace risk again, as reflected in the latest European stock futures, such as the STOXX50 futures, which surged by over +8.8%.

In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has been volatile, with some upward adjustments due to the risk-on sentiment in the U.S. financial markets and a reduction in market expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts after President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs (except for China). However, the rise in the 10-year bond yield has been tempered by buying from market players, leading to a slight decline in the overall yield to 4.28%.

In the currency market, the dollar has regained strength, in line with the risk-on sentiment in the U.S. stock market, which has pressured the Japanese Yen (JPY) to gradually weaken. Additionally, market expectations for Fed interest rate cuts have decreased as players have begun to ease concerns over U.S. trade policy, resulting in the dollar rising to around 102.7 points (fluctuating within the range of 101.8-103.3 points). As for gold prices, the slight decline in the 10-year bond yield has supported gold prices (COMEX gold futures for June 2025) to fluctuate around the $3,100 per ounce zone, even as the financial market atmosphere has shifted back to a risk-on state.

In the next 24 hours, key highlights will include the U.S. March CPI inflation report. Additionally, market players will be awaiting the Jobless Claims report to assess the U.S. employment situation, along with statements from Fed officials to evaluate the likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts. Currently, market players estimate that the Fed may cut rates about three times this year (down from previous expectations of four to five cuts).

In Asia, analysts are assessing that concerns over the impact of U.S. trade policies during a slowing economy may lead the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to decide to cut rates by 25 bps to 5.50%.

Moreover, aside from the above factors, market players will be monitoring the trend of U.S. trade policies and the responses from trading partners, especially China, after the U.S. raised import tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%.

Regarding the outlook for the Thai Baht, while it has appreciated rapidly over the past night, it is undeniable that a key factor is the continuous rise in gold prices. However, we believe that gold prices may not have a strong upward trend amidst the current risk-on market conditions. Additionally, gold prices lack new supportive factors, and as the market returns to a risk-on state, we see that demand for U.S. risk assets and the weakening of the Japanese Yen (JPY) may help support the dollar's appreciation or at least keep it fluctuating within a sideways range. Therefore, we maintain our previous view that the Baht may gradually weaken. However, if the Baht (USDTHB) strengthens beyond the 34.10-34.20 Baht per dollar zone, it could return to a sideways phase or have opportunities for gradual appreciation, especially when considering a trend-following strategy.

It is worth noting that in April and May, the Baht will still face significant weakening pressures, such as the outflow of dividend payments to foreign investors. This leads us to believe that the Baht may still have opportunities to gradually weaken, even as the market eases concerns over U.S. trade policy. Although the U.S. has suspended reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, it has raised import tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, indicating that trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain heated, which may pressure the Chinese Yuan to weaken or at least fluctuate sideways. During this period, the Baht has been moving in line with the Chinese Yuan (especially the offshore Yuan), which is above 70%, suggesting that if the Chinese Yuan weakens, it could create pressure on Asian currencies and the Baht.

Amidst the high volatility in the financial markets, especially in the coming year facing Trump's uncertainty, we continue to recommend that market players adopt a more diversified risk management strategy, including the use of instruments such as options or local currencies, which will enhance the effectiveness of hedging against exchange rate risks.

We expect the Baht to fluctuate in the next 24 hours at around34.05-34.35Baht/Dollar (watch for volatility during the market's response to U.S. economic data reports).